\n
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today announced a supersized interest rate hike.<\/p>\n
It lifted\u00a0the cash rate target by 50\u00a0basis points to 85\u00a0basis points (0.85 per cent), surprising the market with a rate rise double that expected by most commentators.<\/p>\n
The RBA\u2019s dramatic move was made in response to ballooning inflation that it sees worsening unless the period of historically lower interest rates is put to an abrupt end.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s the biggest one-month increase in the official cash rate since February 2000 and only the second rise since November 2010.<\/p>\n
\u201cInflation in Australia has increased significantly (and) while inflation is lower than in most other advanced economies, it is higher than earlier expected,\u201d RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in his monthly Monetary Policy Decision.<\/p>\n
\u201cGlobal factors, including COVID-related disruptions to supply chains and the war in Ukraine, account for much of this increase in inflation but domestic factors are playing a role too, with capacity constraints in some sectors and the tight labour market contributing to the upward pressure on prices.<\/p>\n
Mr Lowe noted that the floods earlier this year have also affected some prices.<\/p>\n
\u201cInflation is expected to increase further, but then decline back towards the 2\u20133\u00a0per\u00a0cent range next year.<\/p>\n
\u201cHigher prices for electricity and gas and recent increases in petrol prices mean that, in the near term, inflation is likely to be higher than was expected a month ago.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs the global supply-side problems are resolved and commodity prices stabilise, even if at a high level, inflation is expected to moderate.\u201d<\/p>\n
The stock market responded by dropping 1.5 per cent, while the Aussie dollar climbed.<\/p>\n
With the cash rate up, it\u2019s highly likely variable mortgage rates will rise by the same or a similar amount over the coming week, taking the average variable interest rate for a new owner occupier loan to around 3.16 per cent.<\/p>\n
Together with the 25 basis point increase handed down last month, the cumulative 75 basis point lift in mortgage rates will add approximately $200 per month in additional repayments on a $500,000 mortgage compared with mortgage rates in April.<\/p>\n
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the RBA\u2019s move would be hard news for mortgage holders.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s difficult news for homeowners already facing skyrocketing costs of living, including spiking energy prices,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cA better future awaits but first we have to navigate together this inflation challenge we inherited, and the rising interest rates that accompany it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Downside risk for housing<\/strong><\/p>\nCoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said the double whammy for indebted households comes as non-discretionary inflation rises at more than twice the pace of prices for discretionary goods.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cHigher costs for food, fuel and finance are likely to see household savings continue to taper as families funnel more of their income towards servicing their mortgage and funding essential costs of living.\u201d<\/p>\n
For housing markets, higher mortgage rates add further downside risk to values, which are already trending lower, such as the case in Sydney and Melbourne, or losing steam in the rate of growth across most other markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cImportantly, home values were already easing well ahead of a rising cash rate and a combination of higher fixed mortgage rates, lower consumer sentiment, tighter credit conditions and worsening affordability have all played a role in the slowdown to-date,\u201d Mr Lawless said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile we expect the housing downturn evident in Sydney and Melbourne will gradually spread to other regions, the trajectory for this will depend on how fast and how high interest rates move and normalise, along with the performance of the broader Australian economy and labour market.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cA stronger economy, along with the tightest labour market conditions in a generation, should help to ensure the ensuing housing downturn remains orderly.\u201d<\/p>\n
Wages stalled<\/strong><\/p>\nWith wages not even pretending to keep up with rampant inflation, house purchases will be lower on many prospective buyers\u2019 priority list.<\/p>\n
In the 12 months to March 2022, the Consumer Price Index increased by 5.1 per cent, while the Wage Price Index increased by 2.4 per cent, a lag that is expected to continue.<\/p>\n
A Finder nationally representative survey of 688 workers found close to 3 in 4 workers (71 per cent) feel they are underpaid.<\/p>\n
Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said many Aussie workers were banking on a pay bump as a buffer against inflation.<\/p>\n
\u201cAustralians are already feeling the cost-of-living crunch and are looking to their employers for some relief.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile unemployment is now very low and companies are competing fiercely for top talent, economists almost unanimously agree that wage growth won\u2019t keep pace with skyrocketing inflation,\u201d Mr Cooke said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Harry Murphy Cruise from Moody\u2019s Analytics said inflation would continue to outpace wage growth, but only in the short term.<\/p>\n
\u201cGiven the number of workers on collective bargaining agreements, Aussies\u2019 wages tend to move more slowly than in other parts of the world. In the short term, prices will continue to outpace wages, although we can expect that to flip as supply constraints ease and wages play catch-up,\u201d Murphy Cruise said.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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