{"id":2513,"date":"2022-05-07T07:59:38","date_gmt":"2022-05-07T07:59:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/royabhishek.in\/urbanbuyer\/heres-whats-really-happening-to-home-loans\/"},"modified":"2022-05-07T07:59:38","modified_gmt":"2022-05-07T07:59:38","slug":"heres-whats-really-happening-to-home-loans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/royabhishek.in\/urbanbuyer\/heres-whats-really-happening-to-home-loans\/","title":{"rendered":"Here’s what’s really happening to home loans"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\n<\/p>\n

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\n\n\"key<\/picture><\/span><\/p>\n

Key takeaways<\/p>\n

There were 717,000 new home loans across Australia over the last twelve months.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Experienced home buyers make up about 75% of the market at present, with first home buyers holding 25%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Over the past ten years, the size of Australian home loans has been growing by 8% per annum.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There is little doubt now that interest rates are going to rise.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Let\u2019s start with some numbers.<\/strong><\/p>\n

There were 717,000 new home loans across Australia over the last twelve months.<\/p>\n

This excludes refinancing.<\/p>\n

This is up by 31% from the year before.<\/p>\n

Around half of these loans were to owner residents who have bought a dwelling in the past.<\/p>\n

These borrowers are what the real estate industry likes to label \u201csecond and subsequent\u201d buyers.<\/p>\n

Another 28% of the 717,000 home loans were taken up by second and subsequent investors.<\/p>\n

\"Home<\/p>\n

These 200,000-odd investors were up from 124,000 such loans the year before, an increase of 60%.<\/p>\n

And 22%, with about 160,000 loans, were first-time owner-occupier buyers.<\/p>\n

This volume was up just 11% from a year earlier.<\/p>\n

Finally, just 1% or 10,500 loans last year went to first-time investors.<\/p>\n

But this volume has increased by two-thirds in the past twelve months.<\/p>\n

So, in summary, experienced home buyers make up about 75% of the market at present, with first home buyers holding 25%.<\/p>\n

And investors hold a 30% market share.<\/p>\n

Investment interest is currently growing a two and half times the pace of the second and subsequent owner-occupier interest and six times the speed when compared to first-time owner resident buyers.<\/p>\n

For more details see\u00a0table 1<\/strong> below:<\/p>\n

Also of interest is the size of new home loans.<\/p>\n

Price of new home loans<\/span><\/h2>\n

The average new housing home loan for owner residents is currently $570,000 across Australia.<\/p>\n

Over the past ten years, the size of Australian home loans has been growing by 8% per annum.<\/p>\n

Last year the rate of growth was 18%.<\/p>\n

The average Australian home loan size was $100,000 cheaper at the start of the pandemic.<\/p>\n

Chart 1<\/strong>\u00a0shows the relationship between the RBA cash rate and home loan size.<\/p>\n

Chart 2\u00a0<\/strong>and Table 2<\/strong> (at the end of the post) show the size and recent growth in home loan size by buyer type.<\/p>\n

\"01\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Both\u00a0tables 1<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a02<\/strong>\u00a0provide the relevant data by state and territory too.<\/p>\n

\"02\"<\/p>\n

\"03\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

There is little doubt now that interest rates are going to rise further.<\/p>\n

Some are saying that this will occur faster and at a great amount than previously thought.<\/p>\n

This change in tone is somewhat astonishing given that most economic talking heads \u2013 just a few months ago \u2013 were in lockstep with the RBA\u2019s \u2018promise\u2019 of no change in the cash rate until at least 2024.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, I am sticking to my\u00a0original forecast<\/strong><\/a>.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>I said in November last year:<\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0\u201c\u2026a limited increase in official interest rates this cycle should be enough to adequately dampened inflation and lessen irrational exuberance.<\/em><\/p>\n

For mine I don\u2019t see the RBA overreacting and as a result I see the official cash rate lifting between 1.75% and 2.0% by the end of 2024, with the first lift being just 0.15% \u2013 bringing the cash rate to 0.25% \u2013 sometime in late 2022.\u00a0 <\/em><\/p>\n

After which I see 0.25% increases, and most likely on a quarterly basis, during calendar 2023 and 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n

A few are now forecasting house price falls during 2023 as a result of rising interest rates, a lift in the number of dwellings for sale, affordability limits and even buyer fatigue.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Those house price falls were modest.<\/p>\n

But now we have punters calling for 15% plus price declines.<\/p>\n

Again, this change in tone is amazing, bordering on duplicitous.<\/p>\n

Yet, there is no precedent for the RBA increasing the cash rate through prolonged double-digit declines in Australian housing values.<\/p>\n

\"Rba\"<\/p>\n

Plus, this time around \u2013 given how low-interest rates are plus the size of mortgages these days (and for mine that there is little real wage growth<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0forthcoming) \u2013 there will be greater household sensitivity to interest rate changes.<\/p>\n

For example, a 1% to 1.5% rise in the home loan rate, doesn\u2019t seem like a lot (especially to those among us that were paying 15% to 17% when we bought our first home) but that 1% to 1.5% increase represents a whopping 37% to 55% lift over the current 2.7% average home loan rate.<\/p>\n

This will see many home borrowers paying between $500 and $750 extra per month.<\/p>\n

That will have an impact and the housing market should slow accordingly.<\/p>\n

So, for mine, at\u00a0best<\/strong>\u00a0there could be a\u00a0plateauing<\/a><\/strong> in housing values, on average, over the next five-plus years.<\/p>\n

This might even extend to a decade.<\/p>\n

There will be falls in median housing values at times along the way and those falls\u00a0could<\/strong>\u00a0reach double digits (at times) in terms of an annual percentage change.<\/p>\n

But if I was to place a bet, I reckon that the median Australian house price in late 2022 will be about the same number at the end of the decade.<\/p>\n

To finish let\u2019s revisit that\u00a0well almost.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Well almost<\/span><\/h2>\n

\"Inflation\"<\/p>\n

Given\u00a0inflation\u2019s propensity<\/strong><\/a> to get out of hand, the RBA was right to have lifted the cash rate this month.<\/p>\n

I think it should have been increased by 0.4%, bringing the cash rate to 0.5%.<\/p>\n

Why \u2013 well unless you have been hiding under a rock during the past week \u2013 Australia\u2019s annual inflation rate currently exceeds 5%.<\/p>\n

Remember the RBA is supposed to try and keep inflation in the 2% to 3% band.<\/p>\n

But it is an election month after all.<\/p>\n

Then my\u00a0earlier interest rate outlook<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0comes back into play.<\/p>\n

That is 0.25% lifts, roughly six weeks, after each quarter until we get a cash rate somewhere between 1.5% to 2.0%.<\/p>\n

The RBA has always lifted interest rates \u2013 well going back to the 1990s \u2013 the meeting immediately after the latest inflation figures.<\/p>\n

But of course, the world is in an increasing state of flux, so who really knows what will happen.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n<\/p>\n
\nAbout Michael Matusik<\/a><\/span><\/span>
\nMichael is director of independent property advisory Matusik Property Insights. He is independent, perceptive and to the point; has helped over 550 new residential developments come to fruition and writes his insightful Matusik Missive<\/a><\/span>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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[ad_1] Key takeaways There were 717,000 new home loans across Australia over the last twelve months.\u00a0 Experienced home buyers make up about 75% of the market at present, with first home buyers holding 25%.\u00a0 Over the past ten years, the size of Australian home loans has been growing by 8% per annum.\u00a0 There is little […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2514,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37,104,38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest","category-property-finance","category-property-investment"],"yoast_head":"\nHere's what's really happening to home loans | Urban Buyer: Buyers Agent & Advocates | Best Property Buyers For You<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Key takeaways There were 717,000 new home loans across Australia over the last 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