{"id":2147,"date":"2022-03-19T09:54:37","date_gmt":"2022-03-19T09:54:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/royabhishek.in\/urbanbuyer\/these-5-trends-will-reshape-australias-mortgage-market-in-2022\/"},"modified":"2022-03-19T09:54:37","modified_gmt":"2022-03-19T09:54:37","slug":"these-5-trends-will-reshape-australias-mortgage-market-in-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/royabhishek.in\/urbanbuyer\/these-5-trends-will-reshape-australias-mortgage-market-in-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"These 5 trends will reshape Australia\u2019s mortgage market in 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Australia\u2019s mortgage market has already begun to shift in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Mortgage\"Property prices are sky-high, supply is scarce and many suggest an RBA rate hike is on the horizon.<\/p>\n

Over the next 12 months, we can also expect more a drop in buyer demand, a shift back to inner-city living from regional Australia, and the possibility of further macroprudential controls<\/a><\/u>,<\/p>\n

And all this change is going to have a significant influence on our mortgage market during the year ahead.<\/p>\n

Proptrack economist Paul Ryan highlights 5 key trends<\/a><\/u> in Australia\u2019s mortgage market that we should all watch out for in 2022.<\/p>\n

1. Interest rates are rising<\/span><\/h2>\n

The RBA left official interest rates unchanged for March<\/a><\/u>, and the Bank has reiterated its established position regarding the future direction of rates, with rate rises clearly off the agenda for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

\"Interest\"But what is clear is that interest rates are going up<\/a><\/u>, although the timing remains uncertain.<\/p>\n

Despite the RBA standing firm, rates paid by borrowers on their mortgages have already started to increase.<\/p>\n

Fixed rates lifted across the board, although the big 4 banks have hiked more aggressively<\/a><\/u> than many of the low-cost lenders.<\/p>\n

In the past 4 months, CBA and Westpac have hiked interest rates<\/a><\/u> 6 times, while NAB and ANZ<\/a><\/u> have hiked 5 times.<\/p>\n

And Ryan expects this trend to continue slowly throughout the year, with larger increases in the amount borrowers have to pay once the RBA moves the cash rate up.<\/p>\n

Ryan expects the RBA to start raising the cash rate in August<\/a><\/u> (possibly June) after news of more strong inflation data, unemployment below 4%, and wages growth pushing up to 3% and see the cash rate rising to around 1.5 to 2% over the next two years or so.<\/p>\n

However, our team at Metropole believe \u201cofficial\u201d rates won\u2019t rise in 2022<\/p>\n

2. Variable rates will become more popular<\/span><\/h2>\n

Rising interest rates have been driven by fixed-rate repricing, while variable mortgage rates<\/a><\/u> are still falling.<\/p>\n

Around 15% of new mortgages are usually taken out with fixed rates<\/a><\/u>, Ryan explains.<\/p>\n

But fixed rates became the mortgage of choice during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic as the RBA\u2019s liquidity support lowered fixed rates in particular.<\/p>\n

But now the mortgage market is returning to more normal conditions, which means fixed-rate products aren\u2019t priced as favourably.<\/p>\n

That means more and more people are taking out variable loans \u2013 a trend Ryan expects will continue throughout the next year.<\/p>\n

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\u201cExpect the share of variable rate loans taken out over 2022 to head back towards three-quarters, despite the expectations that interest rates will increase in coming years,\u201d <\/em>he says.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\"Chart01\"<\/a><\/p>\n

3. Investor lending will grow<\/span><\/h2>\n

\"Investors\"Housing loans for investors<\/a><\/u> struck a record high in January, as new figures showed the growth in Australian house prices was at its slowest pace since October 2020.<\/p>\n

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said loans for housing rose 2.6% in January to $33.7 billion.<\/p>\n

Of these, owner-occupied mortgages rose one per cent to $22.7 billion, while investor home loans jumped 6.1 per cent to a record $11 billion.<\/p>\n

Lenders have already responded to the pickup in investors, with increased competition pushing down investor interest rates to their lowest level relative to owner-occupier rates in recent years, Ryan notes.<\/p>\n

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\u201cLook for investor lending to continue to grow, and even more lender competition for investors over the coming year.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\"Chart02\"<\/a><\/p>\n

4. High Loan-to-Valuation loans will be difficult to get<\/span><\/h2>\n

With the jump in property prices over the past couple of years, saving a 20% deposit<\/a><\/u> for a home loan is getting more and more difficult.<\/p>\n

\"DepositThe average house deposit<\/a><\/u> is now in excess of $100,000.<\/p>\n

And unfortunately, that isn\u2019t going to change.<\/p>\n

Ryan expects that securing a home loan with a small deposit (less than 20%) will become even harder going forward.<\/p>\n

From the period before the pandemic, the share of high-Loan to Valuation (LVR) loans (a 90 LVR loan is one with a 10% deposit) has fallen 20%, to only 7.5% of new loans.<\/p>\n

And the share is even smaller for investor loans.<\/p>\n

Why?<\/p>\n

\"Apra\"Partly because of APRA\u2019s guidance to limit high-LVR loans to mitigate housing market risks.<\/p>\n

Also, late last year the regulator instructed the big banks to raise the repayment risk buffer<\/a><\/u> from 2.5% to 3% above the headline rate secured by new borrowers.<\/p>\n

The tightening of lending conditions will impact all new borrowers regardless of the \u201crisk\u201d circumstances of local housing markets.<\/p>\n

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\u201cExpect high-LVR loans to continue to be hard to get going forward,\u201d <\/em>Ryan says.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis makes programs like the Federal Government\u2019s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, where the government guarantees the shortfall of a first-time buyers\u2019 deposit, increasingly valuable for those looking to get a foot into the housing market. <\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cBut places in this scheme are capped, and in high demand.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

5. Interest-only loans will be scarce<\/span><\/h2>\n

The volume of interest-only loans<\/a><\/u> hit record lows in 2021 as loans continued to expire and new loans continued to decline.<\/p>\n

\"Loans\"By March 2021 only 14% of the outstanding housing loan stock by value was on IO terms, which is comfortably the lowest share on record.<\/p>\n

Lenders have generally shied away from interest-only mortgage repayments since APRA<\/a><\/u> brought in moves to limit the amount in the market back in 2017.<\/p>\n

Now, these loans have interest rates around 0.86% higher than principal and interest loan repayments, Ryan explains.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThis interest rate differential has been increasing,\u201d <\/em>he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cExpect it to remain high, as lenders seek to keep the share of interest-only mortgages on their books to low levels.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

ALSO READ: <\/strong>Will the Ukraine crisis really cause property values to tumble 15%<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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[ad_1] Please use the menu below to navigate to any article section: Australia\u2019s mortgage market has already begun to shift in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. Property prices are sky-high, supply is scarce and many suggest an RBA rate hike is on the horizon. Over the next 12 months, we can also expect more […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2148,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37,38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest","category-property-investment"],"yoast_head":"\nThese 5 trends will reshape Australia\u2019s mortgage market in 2022 | Urban Buyer: Buyers Agent & Advocates | Best Property Buyers For You<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Please use the menu below to navigate to any article section: Australia\u2019s mortgage market has already begun to shift in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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