{"id":1716,"date":"2022-02-04T10:14:12","date_gmt":"2022-02-04T10:14:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/royabhishek.in\/urbanbuyer\/virgin-money-property-predictions-for-2022\/"},"modified":"2022-02-04T10:14:12","modified_gmt":"2022-02-04T10:14:12","slug":"virgin-money-property-predictions-for-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/royabhishek.in\/urbanbuyer\/virgin-money-property-predictions-for-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Virgin Money property predictions for 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

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What can we really expect from our property markets in 2022?<\/strong><\/p>\n

While have seen some wild predictions being thrown around in media headlines, the reality may be different from what you expect.<\/p>\n

Following a year where house prices had their largest annual rise in 30 years1 (21%) amid all the challenges of a global pandemic, Virgin Money Australia\u2019s Chief Economist Peter Munckton shares his top property predictions for 2022.<\/p>\n

Prices won\u2019t cool as much as expected<\/span><\/h2>\n

While many commentators feel that affordability issues and rising interest rates will stall property price growth, \u00a0<\/span>Mr. Munckton said\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI expect house prices over the next couple of years to be a little stronger than the general consensus.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Price\u201cHouse prices were up strongly across Australia in 2021, with all major cities achieving double-figure growth, and historically, big house price rises one year don\u2019t necessarily mean a smaller rise, or even a decline, in the following year.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat drives house prices isn\u2019t what happened the previous year but factors such as interest rate movements, the availability of finance, the underlying demand and supply for houses, affordability and confidence in the outlook for house prices \u2013 and these conditions are still just right.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, Mr. Munckton notes\u2026<\/p>\n

\u201cMomentum of house price growth did slow over the final four months of 2021, which makes it likely that growth in 2022 will be comfortably below the pace seen last year.\u201d<\/p>\n

Keep your eye on the cash rate<\/span><\/h2>\n

Of course a lot will depend on what the RBA does with interest rates and with rising inflation there is now the suggestion that rates may rise later this year or next year.<\/p>\n

Mr. Munckton explains\u2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Cash\u201cActual declines in house prices often coincide around the peak of the cash rate, which financial markets predict to be in 2024-25 at around 2-2.25%, however, I believe the peak in the cash rate will be above current financial market pricing.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis suggests house prices may decline for a period sometime around 2024, and more generally, will likely see a run of years with less rapid house price growth beyond 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n

Affordability may push people to state \u2018hop\u2019 to better value cities<\/span><\/h2>\n

With regards to the affordability constraints caused by the steep rise in house prices over the last year Mr. Munckton commented\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWith interstate borders re-opening, cheaper housing may again be an important reason why people move regions.<\/p>\n

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\u201cRelative to Sydney, the average house price in Hobart is expensive by the standards of the past 40 years.<\/p>\n

\u201cMelbourne and Canberra house prices are mid-range relative to Sydney over the past 50 years while Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth appear cheap.<\/p>\n

\u201cAffordability is determined by the proportion of income spent on meeting mortgage payments, and by that measure, Sydney is the most expensive, followed by Melbourne, Hobart, Canberra, Adelaide, and Brisbane, while the least expensive are Perth and Darwin.<\/p>\n

\u201cValue and affordability both suggest house prices in Brisbane and Adelaide may rise by more over the next two to three years.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe same factors suggest that Sydney and Hobart could have the slowest house price growth, Melbourne and Canberra are likely to be somewhere in-between, while Perth and Darwin housing markets currently offer the best value.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some cities to feel the supply pinch.<\/span><\/h2>\n

Of course there isn\u2019t one Australian property market and local factors will affect how each market performs. Mr. Munckton commented\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cOne indicator that considers both demand and supply is the ratio of the annual change in state population relative to the 12-month sum of building approvals.<\/p>\n

\"Demand\u201cPre-COVID, that ratio was at a cyclical high for all states (except NSW) suggesting that not enough housing was being built for the growth of the population.<\/p>\n

\u201cSince then, approvals have gone up and population growth has slowed sharply \u2013 as a result that ratio is now at or close to record lows for most states.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat suggests supply will weigh on house prices across all states at some stage over the next couple of years.<\/p>\n

Victoria, particularly Melbourne, could be the most affected.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe ratio is at its highest in Queensland suggesting it might be less impacted by supply than the other states.\u201d<\/p>\n

Demand: To buy or not to buy<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u201cIn terms of demand, buyer activity is expected to be up year on year due to so much of 2021 being affected by lockdowns and buyers and sellers \u2018waiting to see\u2019.<\/p>\n

\"Property\u201cMore investors will re-emerge in 2021 in search of income and capital growth.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe proportion of households\u2019 disposable income going to meet interest payments is at its lowest level ever, and households have run up a huge level of savings over the past couple of years.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile property prices are at record highs, interest rates are still historically low, and the high amount of savings that many didn\u2019t have before the pandemic will propel first home buyers into action.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cCompetition in the home loan market will continue to benefit consumers looking for a good deal.<\/p>\n

Many lenders, including Virgin Money Australia, have sharpened home loan rates to attract and retain customers.\u201d<\/p>\n

ALSO READ: <\/strong><\/span>Why 2022 is the WORST time to buy property<\/a><\/p>\n

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[ad_1] Please use the menu below to navigate to any article section: What can we really expect from our property markets in 2022? While have seen some wild predictions being thrown around in media headlines, the reality may be different from what you expect. Following a year where house prices had their largest annual rise […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,39,37,76,77,38,81],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-homepage-top","category-latest","category-michael-yardney-blog","category-michael-yardneys-commentary","category-property-investment","category-weekly-latest"],"yoast_head":"\nVirgin Money property predictions for 2022 | Urban Buyer: Buyers Agent & Advocates | Best Property Buyers For You<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Please use the menu below to navigate to any article section: What can we really expect from our property markets in 2022? 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